Rasheed wallace intimidating ref

07-Oct-2016 10:40

It’s like the Euthyphro question, but for sports gods: Are technicals good because the sports gods love them, or do the sports gods love technicals because they’re good?

" This theory has a few possible scenarios associated with it, such as: Teams that are in contention are playing hard all the time — so hard that they occasionally earn a technical — while teams that are out of contention don’t really care enough to do “whatever it takes” to win.

Take a look at some other things that have a direct impact on the game that’s similar to that of technical fouls (slightly above or below -1 point each): If everything else were equal, we would probably expect technicals to be in the same range as turnovers or steals, so the total gap from where they ought to be based on in-game value and where they actually are, predictively, is massive.

That helps us avoid potentially skewed data if different types of teams (like winning teams) are more likely to get technicals in the first place.

When we do that, here’s what we get (the new chart is on the right, with the old one on the left for comparison’s sake): Lo and behold, they’re extremely similar!

I also duplicated all of this research using margin of victory so as not to rely entirely on the predictive algorithm, and the results were virtually identical.

" We’re interested in the difference between what that foul did to a team’s projected results and its actual results.

Take a look at some other things that have a direct impact on the game that’s similar to that of technical fouls (slightly above or below -1 point each): If everything else were equal, we would probably expect technicals to be in the same range as turnovers or steals, so the total gap from where they ought to be based on in-game value and where they actually are, predictively, is massive.That helps us avoid potentially skewed data if different types of teams (like winning teams) are more likely to get technicals in the first place.When we do that, here’s what we get (the new chart is on the right, with the old one on the left for comparison’s sake): Lo and behold, they’re extremely similar!I also duplicated all of this research using margin of victory so as not to rely entirely on the predictive algorithm, and the results were virtually identical." We’re interested in the difference between what that foul did to a team’s projected results and its actual results.That kind of explanation is intuitively appealing, both because the scenario has a plausible ring to it and because it’s the sort of unsexy answer you often find when you try to explain a strange result.